Supply/Demand Adequacy Analysis

The problem

Adequacy Fails When Demand and Supply Are Modelled Apart

The hours that threaten adequacy are the ones where high demand and low supply coincide — a cold, still evening; a heat wave with derated thermal units. If demand and supply come from different assumptions, those hours are either missed or manufactured.

Coherent inputs

One Scenario, Both Sides of the Balance

Demand scenarios (native load, electrification, large loads) and supply scenarios (renewables, conventional outages and derates, imports, storage, behind-the-fence generation) are drawn from the same weather and growth assumptions. Every hour of the balance is internally consistent.

Metrics

Adequacy Outcomes That Planners Recognize

• LOLE — loss-of-load expectation across the scenario family
• EUE — expected unserved energy, by hour and by cause
• Reserve margin — planning reserve under each scenario
• Locational adequacy — outcomes by region and zone, not only system-wide

Probabilistic outcomes

Risk Across Futures, Not One Worst Case

Adequacy is reported as P10/P50/P90 outcomes across the 8760-hour scenario family, so planners can see how much of the risk comes from weather, from load growth, from the supply fleet, and from the assumptions that bind them.