Long-term Conventional Generation Modelling

Fleet evolution

Additions, Retirements, and Repowering as Dated Events

Every unit carries its commercial operation date, planned retirement, and any repowering or fuel switch as versioned scenario assumptions. The fleet in 2035 is a traceable set of decisions, not a fixed list, and each scenario can hold a different set.

Availability

Outages and Derates as Probabilistic Events

Forced outages, maintenance windows, and derates are sampled per unit and per scenario. Ambient-temperature and water-availability derates come from the same weather draw that drives demand and renewables, so a hot, dry week reduces thermal and hydro capability in the hours demand peaks.

• Forced outages sampled per unit, per scenario
• Maintenance scheduled around seasonal peaks
• Temperature and hydrological derates from the shared weather draw

Energy-limited resources

Hydro and Storage Over the Full Year

Reservoir inflows, storage cycling, and state-of-charge constraints are modelled across all 8760 hours, so energy-limited resources contribute what they can sustain, not their nameplate.

Outputs

8760-Hour Available-Capacity and Offer Scenarios

Hourly P10–P90 available capacity per unit and for the fleet, plus offer behaviour for the market simulator — each carrying the scenario identifier, weather draw, and model version that produced it.