Distribution System Assessment and Well-Being Analysis

Beyond one peak

Assessing Assets Across Plausible Futures

A single deterministic peak tells you an asset might be overloaded. An 8760-hour scenario family tells you how often, under which assumptions, and how likely that is. The assessment uses net demand and behind-the-fence supply drawn from the same scenario, so the stress it finds is coherent with the demand and DER futures behind it.

Well-being states

Healthy, Marginal, At Risk

Each asset is assigned a well-being state across the scenario family, based on the likelihood and severity of overload and contingency exposure. States are computed per asset, per scenario, and per year — a feeder can be healthy in 2030 and at risk in 2035 under the same assumptions.

• Healthy — within limits across the family
• Marginal — approaching limits in a meaningful share of scenarios
• At risk — overloaded or contingency-exposed with material probability

Ranked deficiencies

A Risk-Ordered Queue of Reinforcement Needs

Deficiencies are ranked by the likelihood and severity of what they resolve, and each carries the year it becomes necessary. The result is a queue planners can defend: which asset, why, how likely, and when.

Scenario comparison

Which Projects Hold Their Rank

Comparing across load-growth, DER, electrification, and large-load assumptions shows which reinforcements keep their rank and date under every scenario, and which move or fall away depending on what materializes.